The phenomenon designated ATD-2025-NOS was first detected in ATD monitoring feeds during the second week of November 2025, at which time it registered 0.8 CAU in the pre-emergent zone. The event belongs to the well-documented class of recursive temporal displacement phenomena, in which a current year is framed by participants as a structural recurrence of a prior year of cultural significance. In this instance, the comparison draws on observed parallels between 2026 and 2016: electoral outcomes in multiple monitored jurisdictions, the return of specific aesthetic patterns to mainstream distribution channels, and the resurgence of online communities with documented sensitivity to decennial framing.
Current ebb rate of 0.3–0.4 CAU per week is consistent with post-incursion behaviour for standard Nostalgic Surges events. Return to ambient levels (< 0.2 CAU) is forecast for the week of 14 March 2026, after which ATD monitoring frequency will be reduced from weekly to monthly observation intervals. The Limbic Basin is expected to show minimal residual activity at this station's coordinates by that date.
Probability of a recursive micro-surge is assessed at 12–18%, contingent on the occurrence of a significant political, cultural, or economic event that would prompt renewed comparative discourse between 2026 and 2016 conditions. Should a recursive micro-surge occur, secondary peak height is not expected to exceed 1.5 CAU, and recovery to the established ebb trajectory would be rapid (estimated 2–3 weeks). A micro-surge at this late stage would not affect the terminal ebb forecast date materially.
Full return to low-water conditions is forecast for the week of 21 March 2026. Dormancy is expected thereafter. No predicted recurrence is modelled within the current ATD forecast horizon. Anniversary phenomena associated with the 2036 cycle are outside that horizon and will not be subject to speculative monitoring at this time. This station will not be formally retired while residual ambient levels remain above 0.05 CAU; complete station closure and archival is estimated for May 2026.